Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
