Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
